Started Apr 02, 2018 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC (9 months ago)

The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (The Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (EWP) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.



Name Probability
Yes 14%

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