Started Apr 04, 2018 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 26, 2018 05:00PM UTC

SCOTUSblog asks

In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution?

In September 2017, President Trump issued a Proclamation that put substantial limitations on the entry of citizens from six Muslim-majority countries (The White House). A District Court granted a preliminary injunction preventing enforcement of a large part of the Proclamation, and the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit affirmed, for the most part, the District Court's injunction (SCOTUS Blog). President Trump appealed (SCOTUS Blog). "Likely violates" refers to a situation in which the Court makes a decision on the Establishment Clause for the purposes of ruling on the preliminary injunction, but does not make a direct ruling on the proclamation. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as No. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


The Supreme Court did rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution, and it ruled that it did not. This question closed as "b) Yes, and will rule that it does not" with an end date of 26 June 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and will rule that it does 0%
Yes, and will rule that it does not 84%
No 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 94
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 188
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.918
2.
-0.913
3.
-0.913
4.
-0.879

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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