Started Apr 04, 2018 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 15, 2018 06:59AM UTC

SCOTUSblog asks

In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution?

In September 2017, President Trump issued a Proclamation that put substantial limitations on the entry of citizens from six Muslim-majority countries (The White House). A District Court granted a preliminary injunction preventing enforcement of a large part of the Proclamation, and the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit affirmed, for the most part, the District Court's injunction (SCOTUS Blog). President Trump appealed (SCOTUS Blog). "Likely violates" refers to a situation in which the Court makes a decision on the Establishment Clause for the purposes of ruling on the preliminary injunction, but does not make a direct ruling on the proclamation. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as No.

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Name Probability
Yes, and will rule that it does 0%
Yes, and will rule that it does not 79%
No 21%

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