Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia?
Started
Apr 11, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
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Article 4 has been invoked a few times in the history of NATO (NATO, Radio Free Europe). Article 5 has been invoked just once (NATO, NY Times). If Article 4 or Article 5 is invoked for an event in which the perpetrator is initially unknown and NATO subsequently attributes that event to Russia, the question will close retroactively with the end date of the invocation.
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The question closed as "No" with an end date of 1 January 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 415 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1033 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
