The Monkey Cage asks

Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?

Started May 09, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 29, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The Trump administration has seen turnover increasing for its top officials (The Washington Post). Cabinet-level positions refer to the Vice President, the White House Chief of Staff, the 15 Cabinet members (Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs, and the Attorney General), and 7 other cabinet-level officials (the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the United States Trade Representative, the Representative of the United States to the United Nations, the Administrator of the Small Business Administration, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency). Cabinet members who cease to hold a cabinet-level position to take another cabinet-level position will not count for the resolution of this question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "0 (zero)" with an end date of 29 June 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 99%
1 1%
2 0%
3 0%
4 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 248
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.189857
2.
-0.177357
3.
-0.171729
4.
-0.164108
5.
-0.161604

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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