The Economist asks

Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election?

Started Jun 13, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 25, 2018 06:59AM UTC
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Elections are scheduled to be held on 25 July 2018 and Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML-N, remains popular despite the corruption charges leveled against Sharif (The Economist, NY Times).
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Resolution Notes

This question closed as "no" with an end date of 25 July 2018.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44980344

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/27/imran-khan-prepares-coalition-talks-official-results-released/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.50%
No 95.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 194
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.024
3.
-0.024
4.
-0.024
5.
-0.024

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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