The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?

Started Jun 27, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (The EWP). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (EWP) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.00%
No 97.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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