The Monkey Cage asks

Who will be elected senator from West Virginia in the 2018 midterm elections?

Started Jul 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is running for re-election against Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey in the 2018 midterm elections (CNN). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Joe Manchin (D) 88%
Patrick Morrisey (R) 12%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 132
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.163008
2.
-0.160481
3.
-0.137301
4.
-0.127715
5.
-0.127663

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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