The Monkey Cage asks

How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?

Started Aug 01, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 06, 2018 05:00PM UTC

Senate Democrats, particularly those in states carried by President Trump in 2016, are being closely watched in the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process (CNN, SCOTUSBlog). For the purposes of this question, both Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) will count. This question will remain open until a confirmation vote is held or until the last day of the 115th Congress. In the event Kavanaugh's confirmation is withdrawn, the question will be voided.
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Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the only Democrat to vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh. This question closed on "1" with an end date of 6 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 84%
1 15%
2 1%
3 0%
4 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 148
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 357
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.335897
2.
-0.320481
3.
-0.298416
4.
-0.287626
5.
-0.272905

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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