The Monkey Cage asks

Who will be elected senator from Texas in the 2018 midterm elections?

Started Sep 07, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is running for re-election against Democratic nominee Beto O'Rourke in the 2018 midterm elections (Real Clear Politics). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Ted Cruz (R) 80%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 20%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 149
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 317
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.288
3.
-0.277
4.
-0.268
5.
-0.261

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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