SnapCasts are a quick and easy way to practice probabilistic thinking about the near future. Here's how it works: 1) We'll post a question on Twitter asking you to assign a probability for the likelihood of a given event. Unlike traditional forecasting questions on Good Judgment Open, SnapCast questions ask for a rough estimate of the true probability: 0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, or 75-100%. 2) Once you have selected your answer, the current responses will be revealed. Keep in mind: this is NOT a traditional poll. The 'wisdom of the crowd' for SnapCasts is calculated as the median of the median forecast, which is often not the most popular forecast (i.e. the mode). 3) When the outcome becomes known, we'll respond to the Tweet to announce that the question has been resolved. At this time, we will also post Brier scores for the different answer options. What in the world is a Brier score? Great question. Brier scores were originally developed to evaluate weather forecasts. When your local weatherman says "There is a 10% chance of rain," does it actually rain ~10% of the time? Brier scores give us a way of answering that question. Without getting into the math, know that Brier scores range from 0 to 2 and lower is better: a score of 0 is total prescience (i.e. a weatherman who only forecasts "100% chance of rain" or "0% chance of rain," and is always right). Conversely, a score of 2 means being 100% wrong 100% of the time. For more information on Brier scores, read our FAQ. What is the difference between SnapCasting and forecasting on Good Judgment Open? Another great question. The short answer is a whole heck of a lot. Because they offer no provision for updating, SnapCasts capture a fuzzy outlook at a moment in time (like a snapshot of a moving object). Good Judgment Open allows forecasters to capture a more precise moving picture over time. SnapCasts are intended to serve as a fun introduction to a useful way of thinking about the future...but they are no substitute for longer-term practice on Good Judgment Open. Forecasting on Good Judgment Open allows you to:

Keep tabs on the wisdom of the crowd as it relates to important long term questions on topics ranging from the future of U.S. politics to international affairs, technology to sports and entertainment;

Forecast on longer-term questions and update your probabilities to account for new information;

Compete against other forecasters and measure your foresight across many different questions over time; (This is a key point: a Brier score for an individual SnapCast serves as a measure of accuracy for that forecast, but in no way does it serve as a measure of your accuracy as a forecaster.)

Learn best practices from more seasoned forecasters; ask questions and get exposed to new perspectives on newsworthy issues.