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Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:00AM UTC (5 months)
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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 20 May 2022 and 31 December 2022, will the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China reach or exceed 100,000?

5%

Chance
42 Forecasters • 79 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 reach or exceed $9.0 billion?

89%

Chance
28 Forecasters • 68 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?

58%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 107 Forecasts
Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 06, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?

40 Forecasters • 197 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 11, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 3.5 million sq. km
0%
Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive
4%
More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km
34%
Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive
49%
More than 5.0 million sq. km
13%
Private Superforecasting Workshop and David Epstein ask:

Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?

37%

Chance
97 Forecasters • 600 Forecasts
Started Apr 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?

31 Forecasters • 225 Forecasts
Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 07, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 275
0%
Between 275 and 325
0%
Between 326 and 375
95%
Between 376 and 425
5%
Between 426 and 475
0%
More than 475
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for "Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?

35 Forecasters • 132 Forecasts
Started Mar 30, 2022 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 5.0%
0%
Between 5.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
6%
More than 8.0% but less than 12.0%
42%
Between 12.0% and 15.0%, inclusive
49%
More than 15.0%
3%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual rate of inflation in the European Union reach or exceed 4.0% in December 2022?

100%

Chance
109 Forecasters • 173 Forecasts
Started Feb 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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