Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC (3 months)
About
Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

Status

Type

Sort By

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

1%

Chance
85 Forecasters • 118 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?

67 Forecasters • 144 Forecasts
Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 October 2021
0%
Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021
1%
Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022
1%
Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022
1%
Not before 1 April 2022
97%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?

20%

Chance
88 Forecasters • 133 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:28PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?

19%

Chance
40 Forecasters • 125 Forecasts
Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?

90%

Chance
50 Forecasters • 150 Forecasts
Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

88%

Chance
64 Forecasters • 172 Forecasts
Started Jun 30, 2021 09:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?

62%

Chance
99 Forecasters • 280 Forecasts
Started Jun 25, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 29, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?

1%

Chance
121 Forecasters • 231 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?

39 Forecasters • 116 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.0%
0%
Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive
8%
More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%
21%
Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive
29%
More than 5.5%
42%
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel