Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC (8 months)
About
Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?

39%

Chance
143 Forecasters • 365 Forecasts
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?

7%

Chance
102 Forecasters • 236 Forecasts
Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?

75%

Chance
107 Forecasters • 224 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?

60%

Chance
218 Forecasters • 627 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

5%

Chance
126 Forecasters • 207 Forecasts
Started Jan 21, 2021 01:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?

41 Forecasters • 103 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats
4%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most
95%
No
1%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?

114 Forecasters • 439 Forecasts
Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only Michael Kovrig
0%
Yes, only Michael Spavor
0%
Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor
2%
No
98%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

5%

Chance
136 Forecasters • 294 Forecasts
Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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