I assume that many of you have seen that Good Judgement is running a September Superforecasting Workshop. Although I would love to attend, the tickets are $1250 which is so far beyond my reach it's not even worth considering.
So what I wanted to put to the community was the idea of running a cheaper workshop or even a conference. There are some really amazing predicters in the community so I honestly think it would be possible to match the quality of the official workshop. I am happy to do the legwork in organizing it if people are interested? Apologies if this is not the place to put this.
On a related note, has anyone been lucky enough to attend the official workshop? If so, what was it like, did you feel it was worth it? Would love to hear your thoughts!
@lbiii What Superforecasting forum were you referring to? Also, my personal viewpoint is that I am more inclined to participate in the conversation if I'm reacting to something and I can provide potentially valuable feedback and insight. Otherwise, I'm just observing and listening. I also like places where there isn't a strong record of conversation. For some reason, the inhibition to censor thoughts that may be wrong or uncertain is reduced and therefore more information comes to light. An example would be Instagram and Signal's disappearing messages feature. I also find Reddit useful for information but I don't agree with its overall moderation and I see that trolling and off topic conversations are quite big there. I also find Reddit distracting and complicated to use.
@probahilliby Thank you so much! Well, I'm not a native speaker, so it takes time for me to translate my thoughts and check if it's readable. But your support definitely adds to my motivation.
And I also agree about Reddit's drawbacks, but anyway, it's great that @lbiii got it started! Let's see what happens - we just need someone to post at least an intro. I was thinking about something super simple, like an excel spreadsheet with forecasts on topics anyone of us finds worthy.
@DR-R3W You're welcome! If you're saying you're not a native English speaker, I would say you pass as one! I appreciate your effort and I do want to know how you translate your thoughts into English so fluently.
As for Excel spreadsheet, do you mean like the probability forecast displayed beside a question? That would be super cool. It could have like a consensus forecast of members discussing it. It could even include questions that are not easily verifiable. For example, "Is there life on Mars?" Or, "Is there a great white shark currently living that is 6 meters or more in length?"
@probahilliby re: Superforecaster forum—within the Superforecaster platform operated by Good Judgement Inc., there is a forum/messageboard.
Agreed that Reddit sucks in some ways...but I generally feel like all platforms suck in their own unique ways. It won't be for everyone (if it gets any use at all). :-)
ok, everyone, I have made a discord server for us: https://discord.gg/6R7V9euGzG. You may not have used discord before, but it's basically just a collection of messaging channels. It's very flexible though so there is a lot we can do with it. Please take a look and let me know if anything can be improved. I have created the basic channels and put some of my ideas out there, so I would love your feedback. Also please tag your friends here on GJOpen and let them know about it.
If there is interest I will (do my best to) arrange a talk with a superforecaster in the next few weeks.
Also @Ibiii if you wanted to add the above link to your subreddit description that would be great.
super, thanks, I'll join later today and give feedback. I am glad that we are developing this topic, and it will definitely help us move to a new level.
@lbiii How do you have access to this message board aforementioned? Also, since there are multiple candidates, to optimize picking the right choice, you can conduct a poll to some of us through approval or STAR voting, which seem to be some of the best methods to take a vote. The simplest is approval voting: everyone can vote more than once; the option with the most approval votes wins. Discord vs. Reddit, etc.
So what I wanted to put to the community was the idea of running a cheaper workshop or even a conference. There are some really amazing predicters in the community so I honestly think it would be possible to match the quality of the official workshop. I am happy to do the legwork in organizing it if people are interested? Apologies if this is not the place to put this.
On a related note, has anyone been lucky enough to attend the official workshop? If so, what was it like, did you feel it was worth it? Would love to hear your thoughts!
No prob. Now someone just has to post something. *looks around*
Probably won't be me for the foreseeable future. 🙂
And I also agree about Reddit's drawbacks, but anyway, it's great that @lbiii got it started! Let's see what happens - we just need someone to post at least an intro. I was thinking about something super simple, like an excel spreadsheet with forecasts on topics anyone of us finds worthy.
@DR-R3W You're welcome! If you're saying you're not a native English speaker, I would say you pass as one! I appreciate your effort and I do want to know how you translate your thoughts into English so fluently.
As for Excel spreadsheet, do you mean like the probability forecast displayed beside a question? That would be super cool. It could have like a consensus forecast of members discussing it. It could even include questions that are not easily verifiable. For example, "Is there life on Mars?" Or, "Is there a great white shark currently living that is 6 meters or more in length?"
@lbiii @James-B
@probahilliby re: Superforecaster forum—within the Superforecaster platform operated by Good Judgement Inc., there is a forum/messageboard.
Agreed that Reddit sucks in some ways...but I generally feel like all platforms suck in their own unique ways. It won't be for everyone (if it gets any use at all). :-)
ok, everyone, I have made a discord server for us: https://discord.gg/6R7V9euGzG. You may not have used discord before, but it's basically just a collection of messaging channels. It's very flexible though so there is a lot we can do with it. Please take a look and let me know if anything can be improved. I have created the basic channels and put some of my ideas out there, so I would love your feedback. Also please tag your friends here on GJOpen and let them know about it.
If there is interest I will (do my best to) arrange a talk with a superforecaster in the next few weeks.
Also @Ibiii if you wanted to add the above link to your subreddit description that would be great.
@James-B, you have the wrong letter in @lbiii's tag in your post here: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1522603
Hopefully the user still reads your post.
I have joined the Discord :)
"If there is interest I will (do my best to) arrange a talk with a superforecaster in the next few weeks."
>> Please give us a hint!