I assume that many of you have seen that Good Judgement is running a September Superforecasting Workshop. Although I would love to attend, the tickets are $1250 which is so far beyond my reach it's not even worth considering.
So what I wanted to put to the community was the idea of running a cheaper workshop or even a conference. There are some really amazing predicters in the community so I honestly think it would be possible to match the quality of the official workshop. I am happy to do the legwork in organizing it if people are interested? Apologies if this is not the place to put this.
On a related note, has anyone been lucky enough to attend the official workshop? If so, what was it like, did you feel it was worth it? Would love to hear your thoughts!
@probahilliby I submitted my suggestion in the style of question GJOpen uses as a satirical way of suggesting they could sponsor a conference. Evidently the satire was too obscure.
@probahilliby - Superforecasters have access to the Superforecasters forum.
Regarding some sort of voting between Reddit and Discord—I think we can just use the number of people who sign up for each as a measure of interest. Discord is the clear winner at this time.
@James-B Happy to post the Discord link on the subreddit. Just curious, do you plan on moderating joins? Or will it always be open?
The joins are open as long as they accept the rules (which really is mostly for bots). I want to keep it open as possible for the moment. It's a small community we have here so I don't imagine it will need to be moderated to a great extent, but if we have that problem it's a good one to have.
I don't necessarily see Brier scores as the one determining criteria. At best, it's a proxy measure, just like how High IQ => intelligence (of at least some forms) doesn't mean that all intelligent people do well in IQ tests.
Similarly, there are some people here on GJO who make fantastic observations but have sub-par Brier scores.
Meh. My experience: I was invited because of my brier. There was a then a questionnaire of 25? Questions. One of the questions was designed to test knowledge of correlation versus causation. But it had such a glaring logical fallacy I threw my hands up and said man"meh".
I agree with you that super forecaster is only as good as the knowledge available.. however: gjo studies the difference between super forecasters vs regular forecasters. The difference is large, and statistically relevant.
So what I wanted to put to the community was the idea of running a cheaper workshop or even a conference. There are some really amazing predicters in the community so I honestly think it would be possible to match the quality of the official workshop. I am happy to do the legwork in organizing it if people are interested? Apologies if this is not the place to put this.
On a related note, has anyone been lucky enough to attend the official workshop? If so, what was it like, did you feel it was worth it? Would love to hear your thoughts!
@probahilliby - Superforecasters have access to the Superforecasters forum.
Regarding some sort of voting between Reddit and Discord—I think we can just use the number of people who sign up for each as a measure of interest. Discord is the clear winner at this time.
@James-B Happy to post the Discord link on the subreddit. Just curious, do you plan on moderating joins? Or will it always be open?
@Chrisp replying to https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1520321
I don't necessarily see Brier scores as the one determining criteria. At best, it's a proxy measure, just like how High IQ => intelligence (of at least some forms) doesn't mean that all intelligent people do well in IQ tests.
Similarly, there are some people here on GJO who make fantastic observations but have sub-par Brier scores.
@James-B "The joins are open as long as they accept the rules (which really is mostly for bots)."
>> Unofficial Rule #1: Be humble.
Hahah I meant from a procedural perspective 😅 like you need to accept the rules for discord to let you in.
Also because sometimes you have people raiding servers to spam advertisements or run scams
Meh. My experience: I was invited because of my brier. There was a then a questionnaire of 25? Questions. One of the questions was designed to test knowledge of correlation versus causation. But it had such a glaring logical fallacy I threw my hands up and said man"meh".
I agree with you that super forecaster is only as good as the knowledge available.. however: gjo studies the difference between super forecasters vs regular forecasters. The difference is large, and statistically relevant.