I assume that many of you have seen that Good Judgement is running a September Superforecasting Workshop. Although I would love to attend, the tickets are $1250 which is so far beyond my reach it's not even worth considering.
So what I wanted to put to the community was the idea of running a cheaper workshop or even a conference. There are some really amazing predicters in the community so I honestly think it would be possible to match the quality of the official workshop. I am happy to do the legwork in organizing it if people are interested? Apologies if this is not the place to put this.
On a related note, has anyone been lucky enough to attend the official workshop? If so, what was it like, did you feel it was worth it? Would love to hear your thoughts!
Great idea @James-B Here's what I submitted a few weeks ago: "Will GJOpen announce before March 1, 2023 a Forecaster's Conference where forecasters hear nationally recognized speakers during daytime workshops and attend evening socials to get to know one another?" I did not hear back from the GJOpen powers that be...
@probahilliby I believe we forecasters are GJOpen's sizable staff doing important work. GJOpen is most likely monetizing the expertise of the top forecasters for corporations willing to pay for some sense of the future. Considering our role in doing the heavy intellectual lifting, they could spring for a forecaster event for a nominal fee as both a thank you and as a way to encourage more forecasting activity.
@Syzygy3@Eric_Blair@LuisEnrique I'm personally slightly indifferent about this and don't feel as I could provide meaningful feedback on this proposal but it's worth discussing at least once.
Whoops, thanks for pointing that out. I will also come back with more details on the superforecaster in the next few days. Detail to be given in our newly formed discord 👀
@tabhuth You said, " Do remember: all Superforecasters start on GJO. It's people who are here now who will be Superforecasters in the future."
I want to further this a bit and say that not ALL GJ Pro Supers start on GJO. The actual GJO wasn't a thing yet when the first season began with IARPA, and the original group of Supers came out of this tournament, not from GJO. But subsequent Pro Supers of course came from GJO via recruitment. The original was Season 1. It's been many seasons since :)
@Syzygy3 "'Will GJOpen announce before March 1, 2023 a Forecaster's Conference where forecasters hear nationally recognized speakers during daytime workshops and attend evening socials to get to know one another?'"
I don't think this really relates broadly to geopolitics and the world at large. Forecasting about the company itself is not really the norm. Additionally, there are multiple components in the question that could be ambiguous or vague. What are nationally recognized speakers? What is daytime workshops? What differentiates an evening social with a daytime workshop? Who gets to know one another? What forecasters? How would we know or verify this? Which one to focus on? Etc.
It's a convoluted question. But if you're asking them about having such a workshop, that's a whole 'nother story. My personal opinion is that the current model works. The GJO platform already fosters public discourse for forecasters. I think the Pro side has their own rightly owned exclusivity and community that they can bounce ideas between one another without fear of losing independence in their forecasts.
So what I wanted to put to the community was the idea of running a cheaper workshop or even a conference. There are some really amazing predicters in the community so I honestly think it would be possible to match the quality of the official workshop. I am happy to do the legwork in organizing it if people are interested? Apologies if this is not the place to put this.
On a related note, has anyone been lucky enough to attend the official workshop? If so, what was it like, did you feel it was worth it? Would love to hear your thoughts!
Great idea @James-B Here's what I submitted a few weeks ago: "Will GJOpen announce before March 1, 2023 a Forecaster's Conference where forecasters hear nationally recognized speakers during daytime workshops and attend evening socials to get to know one another?" I did not hear back from the GJOpen powers that be...
@probahilliby I believe we forecasters are GJOpen's sizable staff doing important work. GJOpen is most likely monetizing the expertise of the top forecasters for corporations willing to pay for some sense of the future. Considering our role in doing the heavy intellectual lifting, they could spring for a forecaster event for a nominal fee as both a thank you and as a way to encourage more forecasting activity.
@tabhuth You said, " Do remember: all Superforecasters start on GJO. It's people who are here now who will be Superforecasters in the future."
I want to further this a bit and say that not ALL GJ Pro Supers start on GJO. The actual GJO wasn't a thing yet when the first season began with IARPA, and the original group of Supers came out of this tournament, not from GJO. But subsequent Pro Supers of course came from GJO via recruitment. The original was Season 1. It's been many seasons since :)
@Syzygy3 "'Will GJOpen announce before March 1, 2023 a Forecaster's Conference where forecasters hear nationally recognized speakers during daytime workshops and attend evening socials to get to know one another?'"
I don't think this really relates broadly to geopolitics and the world at large. Forecasting about the company itself is not really the norm. Additionally, there are multiple components in the question that could be ambiguous or vague. What are nationally recognized speakers? What is daytime workshops? What differentiates an evening social with a daytime workshop? Who gets to know one another? What forecasters? How would we know or verify this? Which one to focus on? Etc.
It's a convoluted question. But if you're asking them about having such a workshop, that's a whole 'nother story. My personal opinion is that the current model works. The GJO platform already fosters public discourse for forecasters. I think the Pro side has their own rightly owned exclusivity and community that they can bounce ideas between one another without fear of losing independence in their forecasts.
@DR-R3W Have you joined as of your reading this? It's already a lively and diverse conversation.
Whoops sorry, here's another: https://discord.gg/6R7V9euGzG
Comment deleted on Oct 11, 2022 05:17PM UTC
Comment deleted on Oct 11, 2022 05:17PM UTC