In Gamble v. United States, will the Supreme Court overrule the "separate sovereign" exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause?

Started Oct 12, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 17, 2019 05:00PM UTC

Terance Gamble was convicted of being a felon in possession of a firearm by both the State of Alabama and the federal government (SCOTUSBlog). He appealed his federal conviction, arguing that being prosecuted for the same crime by two courts violates the Double Jeopardy Clause of the Fifth Amendment (Constitution Center).  The Eleventh Circuit affirmed his conviction, noting that the Supreme Court had ruled “that prosecution in federal and state court for the same conduct does not violate the Double Jeopardy Clause because the state and federal governments are 'separate sovereigns' (SCOTUSBlog).”  The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 17 June 2019 (SCOTUS).  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10.00%
No 90.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 157
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 296
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.046
2.
-0.044
3.
-0.042
5.
-0.041

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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