Will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries invert before 2019?

Started Nov 02, 2018 03:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC


For the past several years, the spread between yields on 2-year Treasuries and 10-year Treasuries has been closing (Investopedia). When interest rates on longer term debt drop below rates on shorter term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which historically has been a bad omen for economic growth (CNBC). This question will resolve as "yes" if the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury shows the value in the "2 Yr" column exceeds that in the "10 Yr" column on any one day (The U.S. Department of the Treasury). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.00%
No 96.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 417
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 784
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005
5.
-0.005

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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