Started Nov 02, 2018 03:59AM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?

Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) reported for the month of December 2018 by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. This question will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in January.

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Name Probability
Less than 3.4% 0%
Between 3.4% and 3.5%, inclusive 11%
More than 3.5% but less than 3.7% 40%
Between 3.7% and 3.9%, inclusive 46%
4.0% or more 2%

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