Started Nov 30, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 29, 2019 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks

Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019?

Brexit developments have intensified as the official leave date nears (The Economist, The Financial Times, The Guardian).

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Name Probability
No 86%
Yes, only a snap general election 6%
Yes, only a referendum on its relationship with the EU 8%
Yes, both 0%

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