In Tennessee Wine & Spirits Retailers Association v. Blair, will the Supreme Court rule that Tennessee's residency requirements for issuing liquor licenses are unconstitutional?

Started Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 26, 2019 03:00PM UTC

In February 2018, the Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit affirmed a district court's ruling that Tennessee's minimum residency requirements for retail or wholesale liquor license applicants violated the dormant Commerce Clause of the Constitution by discriminating against out-of-state individuals and entities (SCOTUSBlog). A Tennessee association of retailers appealed to the Supreme Court, arguing that the state's requirements are permissible under the Twenty-first Amendment, which repealed Prohibition (Oyez). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 26 June 2019 (SCOTUS).  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 69.00%
No 31.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.512
2.
-0.407
3.
-0.384
4.
-0.355
5.
-0.351

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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