Nesta asks

Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?

Started Dec 21, 2018 08:00AM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2019 06:59AM UTC

In March 2017, the UK triggered Article 50, which set off a two-year countdown before the UK officially leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 (EUR-Lex). The process for extending the deadline is included in Article 50 and the European Court of Justice has recently ruled that the UK can also revoke its notification (BBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.




This question closed as "It will be extended by the UK and the European Council" with an end date of 22 March 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
It will be revoked by the UK 1%
It will be extended by the UK and the European Council 88%
Neither of the above will occur and the UK will leave the EU 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 626
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 1306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.427
2.
-0.412
3.
-0.412
4.
-0.412

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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