Started Dec 21, 2018 08:00AM UTC   •   Closing Mar 30, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?

In March 2017, the UK triggered Article 50, which set off a two-year countdown before the UK officially leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 (EUR-Lex). The process for extending the deadline is included in Article 50 and the European Court of Justice has recently ruled that the UK can also revoke its notification (BBC).

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Name Probability
It will be revoked by the UK 9%
It will be extended by the UK and the European Council 63%
Neither of the above will occur and the UK will leave the EU 28%

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