When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?
Started
Dec 21, 2018 08:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
Revisions to the "outlook" will not suffice. S&P and Fitch last downgraded the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit vote, and Moody's did the same in September 2017 (The Associated Press, Reuters).
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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2020" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 30 March 2019 | 0% | |
| Between 30 March 2019 and 31 July 2019, inclusive | 0% | |
| Between 1 August 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive | 5% | |
| Not before 1 January 2020 | 95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 255 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 601 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
