The Mack Institute asks

What will annual sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) be in China in 2019?

Started Jan 18, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The Chinese government is promoting the use of vehicles that are partially or fully powered by alternative fuels and has set a target of reaching 2 million annual unit sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) by 2020; for more information on NEVs please see: Reuters, Quartz, Bloomberg, China Daily. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and will be closed when 2019 data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) are reported (e.g., CAAM, CAAM, Global Times, S&P Global, China Daily). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "Less than 1.25 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2020 (CAAM).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.25 million 90%
Between 1.25 million and 1.50 million, inclusive 10%
More than 1.50 million but less than 1.75 million 0%
Between 1.75 million and 2.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 2.00 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 492
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.832337
2.
-0.752153
3.
-0.702038
4.
-0.677238
5.
-0.673094

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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