Nesta asks
What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019?
Started
Jan 24, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC
The Brexit process is creating uncertainty for house prices in the UK (BBC). Outcome will be determined by the UK House Price Index for September 2019, six months after the date when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. This question will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and resolved when data are reported by the Office for National Statistics, expected in mid-November 2019 (GOV.UK). The November 2018 UK House Price Index, which shows the percentage change over the 12-month period to November 2018 as 2.8%, can be found here.
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The question closed "Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 October 2019 (Gov.uk).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than -3.0% | 1% | |
| Between -3.0% and -1.0%, inclusive | 24% | |
| More than -1.0% but less than 1.0% | 50% | |
| Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive | 25% | |
| More than 3.0% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1138 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1433 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
