Started Jan 24, 2019 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019?

The Brexit process is creating uncertainty for house prices in the UK (BBC). Outcome will be determined by the UK House Price Index for September 2019, six months after the date when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. This question will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and resolved when data are reported by the Office for National Statistics, expected in mid-November 2019 (GOV.UK). The November 2018 UK House Price Index, which shows the percentage change over the 12-month period to November 2018 as 2.8%, can be found here

Name Probability
Less than -3.0% 9%
Between -3.0% and -1.0%, inclusive 22%
More than -1.0% but less than 1.0% 38%
Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive 23%
More than 3.0% 8%

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