Started May 03, 2019 04:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 23, 2019 06:59AM UTC (2 days ago)

Nesta asks

If the UK participates in European Parliament elections, what percentage of votes will the Change UK Party win?

The UK's participation in the 2019 European Parliament election is required under the latest extension to the Brexit process (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47826886, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47946256, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-extension-text/text-eu-agreement-to-extend-brexit-idUSKCN1RN01E).

Name Probability
Less than 5.00% 55%
Between 5.00% and 10.00%, inclusive 30%
Between 10.00% and 15.00% 5%
Between 15.00% and 20.00%, inclusive 5%
More than 20.00% 5%

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