Started May 17, 2019 04:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Before 1 November 2019, will the U.S. Congress ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?

On 30 November 2018, President Donald Trump, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the USMCA, a trade deal intended to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (https://www.npr.org/2018/11/30/672150010/usmca-trump-signs-new-trade-agreement-with-mexico-and-canada, https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement/agreement-between). The legislatures of all three nations must ratify the deal before taking effect. President Trump wants the agreement ratified this summer, but the deal faces detractors in Congress (https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/18/nafta-boost-economy-1367825, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/29/trumps-nafta-usmca-trade-deal-faces-bipartisan-roadblock-in-congress.html, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-canada/mexico-says-it-is-close-to-us-metals-tariff-deal-waiting-for-canada-idUSKCN1SL240). For the purposes of this question, the USMCA will be deemed ratified upon final passage by both houses of Congress.

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Name Probability
Yes 24%

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