Started Jun 07, 2019 11:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 19, 2019 06:59AM UTC

What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 20 October 2019?

Projections of an expanding Italian budget deficit will likely see tensions continue between Brussels and Rome (CNBCFinancial TimesReutersBloombergReuters). Eurozone member states must submit their Draft Budget Plans for the following year by 15 October (EC). The question will be resolved using "Spread vs bund" as reported by the Financial Times on Sunday 20 October 2019 (Financial Times).

Name Probability
Less than 2.30 7%
Between 2.30 and 2.70, inclusive 25%
More than 2.70 but less than 3.10 40%
Between 3.10 and 3.50, inclusive 19%
More than 3.50 9%

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