Between 9 August 2019 and 8 September 2019, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?

Started Aug 09, 2019 11:10PM UTC
Closed Sep 09, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Russia has seen growing protests over the disqualification of several opposition candidates from local Moscow elections scheduled for 8 September (Time, Washington Post). Despite thousands of detentions and arrests since late July, protest organizers continue to rally for support (RFERL, Moscow Times, Carnegie Moscow Center). Fatalities must all occur during the question's duration to qualify.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 9 September 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 195
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 304
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005
5.
-0.005

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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