What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for fiction?

Started Oct 15, 2019 03:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 20, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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The National Book Awards are annual literary awards for different categories of writing, including fiction, with five finalists going into the awards ceremony scheduled for 20 November 2019 (National Book Foundation, NPR).

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The question closed "Trust Exercise by Susan Choi" with a closing date of 20 November 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Trust Exercise by Susan Choi 19%
Sabrina & Corina: Stories by Kali Fajardo-Anstine 13%
Black Leopard, Red Wolf by Marlon James 18%
The Other Americans by Laila Lalami 21%
Disappearing Earth by Julia Phillips 29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.234
2.
-0.187
4.
-0.11
5.
-0.052

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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