Nesta asks

Will a political party gain an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons at the next UK General Election?

Started Oct 30, 2019 04:30PM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC

The next UK General Election is planned for 12 December 2019 (BBC, BBC, BBC, Financial Times).

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The question closed "Yes, the Conservative Party" with a closing date of 12 December 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, the Conservative Party 68%
Yes, the Labour Party 0%
Yes, a political party not listed above 0%
No political party will gain an overall majority 32%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 362
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 791
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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