Started Oct 30, 2019 04:30PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

Will a political party gain an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons at the next UK General Election?

The next UK General Election is planned for 12 December 2019 (BBC, BBC, BBC, Financial Times).

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The question closed "Yes, the Conservative Party" with a closing date of 12 December 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, the Conservative Party 68%
Yes, the Labour Party 0%
Yes, a political party not listed above 0%
No political party will gain an overall majority 32%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 362
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 791
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.434
2.
-0.427
3.
-0.424
4.
-0.416
5.
-0.386

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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