Will a political party gain an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons at the next UK General Election?

Started Oct 30, 2019 04:30PM UTC • Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC

The next UK General Election is planned for 12 December 2019 (BBC, BBC, BBC, Financial Times).

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The question closed "Yes, the Conservative Party" with a closing date of 12 December 2019.

Possible Answer	Correct?	Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, the Conservative Party		68%
Yes, the Labour Party		0%
Yes, a political party not listed above		0%
No political party will gain an overall majority		32%

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters	362
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts	791
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672

Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters	average

-0.434

-0.427

-0.424

-0.416

-0.386