The Economist asks:

Before 1 February 2020, will Ukraine adopt a new law giving or extending Donbas special status for local self-government?

Started Nov 22, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 18, 2019 11:00PM UTC

In 2014, a special status for local self-government was granted to the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Economist, Kyiv Post). In 2018, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada adopted bill No. 9153 extending the law governing Donbas' special status through 31 December 2019 (Unian). Russia wants to see Ukrainian constitution amended to encapsulate the special status, however, Ukraine contends a new version of the law reflecting new realities is necessary (Atlantic Council, UKRINFORM, Unian).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 December 2019 (rata.gov.ua).  

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.550508
2.
-0.502719
5.
-0.462238

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username