Started Nov 22, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Feb 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The Economist asks

Before 1 February 2020, will Ukraine adopt a new law giving or extending Donbas special status for local self-government?

In 2014, a special status for local self-government was granted to the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Economist, Kyiv Post). In 2018, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada adopted bill No. 9153 extending the law governing Donbas' special status through 31 December 2019 (Unian). Russia wants to see Ukrainian constitution amended to encapsulate the special status, however, Ukraine contends a new version of the law reflecting new realities is necessary (Atlantic Council, UKRINFORM, Unian).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.

Name Probability
Yes 62%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In