Started Nov 29, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 27, 2020 10:00PM UTC

In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York, NY (NYC), will the Supreme Court rule that NYC’s previous ban on transporting a licensed, locked, and unloaded handgun to a home or shooting range outside city limits is unconstitutional?

Tags
Challenges

Various plaintiffs sued NYC in federal court over the limits it placed on transporting licensed firearms in the city, where NYC prevailed (NYC.govLeagle). While the Second Circuit affirmed the lower court, NYC, fearing a loss before the Supreme Court after it agreed to hear an appeal, eased the relevant limits in the hopes of rendering the appeal moot (Casetext, NY Times, Washington Post). The Court declined to dismiss the case due to mootness, though the issue is set to be considered along with the merits at oral arguments (Oyez, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 April 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Correct Answer

No

Final Crowd Forecast

70%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

141

Forecast
Count

254

Crowd Brier Score

0.8871


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.915
3.
-0.899
4.
-0.897
5.
-0.893