The Economist asks:

Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) produce a consensus statement?

Started Dec 06, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

There have been nine NPT RevCons in the treaty's existence (Economist). The widely used metric of a successful conference is for all parties to reach consensus on a RevCon final document. Four RevCons have failed to reach consensus, but never before at consecutive conferences (European Leadership Network). The NPT RevCon is scheduled to take place in New York from 27 April to 22 May 2020 (State.gov).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Question clarification
Issued on 03/09/20 05:42pm
If there is no 2020 NPT RevCon before the question's suspension date, it will resolve "no."
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 246
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 589
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012
2.
-0.011
4.
-0.011
5.
-0.011

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username