Started Dec 06, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) produce a consensus statement?

There have been nine NPT RevCons in the treaty's existence (Economist). The widely used metric of a successful conference is for all parties to reach consensus on a RevCon final document. Four RevCons have failed to reach consensus, but never before at consecutive conferences (European Leadership Network). The NPT RevCon is scheduled to take place in New York from 27 April to 22 May 2020 (State.gov).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 June 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

246

Forecast
Count

589


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.012
2.
-0.011
3.
-0.011
4.
-0.011