Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?

A lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia is becoming an issue of increasing concern (BBC, CNN, NPR, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Saudi Arabia's military forces include the General Directorate of Border Guard. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.

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Name Probability
Yes 25%

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