Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Before 1 January 2021, will a date be set for a referendum on Scotland's status within the United Kingdom?

Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

A change in Scotland's relationship with the United Kingdom is being discussed as a possible consequence of the Brexit process (BBC, Guardian). The referendum date is immaterial to the question. Whether the UK government sets or agrees to the referendum date or implements the result is immaterial to the question.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1619
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 2499
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.111498
2.
-0.111497
3.
-0.11127
4.
-0.11127
5.
-0.11127

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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