Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2020 United States presidential election also win the electoral college?

Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 03, 2020 07:00PM UTC

For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: (Archives.gov, Ballotpedia, Archives.gov).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 2537
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 4206
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.120358
2.
-0.120358
3.
-0.120329
4.
-0.120329
5.
-0.120246

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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