Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 03, 2020 07:00PM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Who will win the 2020 United States presidential election?

The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday 3 November 2020 (CNN, Ballotpedia, BBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "The Democratic Party nominee" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party nominee 80%
The Republican Party nominee 20%
Another candidate 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 2929
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 6569
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.361
2.
-0.358
3.
-0.358
4.
-0.358

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username