Started Jan 24, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People’s Armed Police (PAP) be mobilized in Hong Kong?

Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests (Reuters). Reports indicate that China's central government could mobilize PLA and/or PAP troops in Hong Kong (Reuters, Public Radio International, Foreign Policy). For the purposes of this question, "mobilized" means actively engaged in military or law enforcement actions against protesters within the territory of Hong Kong.

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NOTE: "against protesters" was added to the More Info the morning after launch. 


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

224

Forecast
Count

814

Crowd Brier Score

0.0421


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.044
2.
-0.044
3.
-0.044
5.
-0.042

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