Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People’s Armed Police (PAP) be mobilized in Hong Kong?

Started Jan 24, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests (Reuters). Reports indicate that China's central government could mobilize PLA and/or PAP troops in Hong Kong (Reuters, Public Radio International, Foreign Policy). For the purposes of this question, "mobilized" means actively engaged in military or law enforcement actions against protesters within the territory of Hong Kong.

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NOTE: "against protesters" was added to the More Info the morning after launch. 


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 224
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 814
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.044317
2.
-0.043925
3.
-0.043924
5.
-0.042253

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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