Foxes Ask:
In Chiafalo v. Washington, will the Supreme Court rule that the state of Washington's fining of presidential electors for failing to vote for the nominee of their party is unconstitutional?
Closed Jul 06, 2020 02:00PM UTC
Washington state law requires Electoral College voters to cast their ballots for the presidential candidates from their party who won the popular vote in the state, but in 2016 four electors cast their votes for others and were fined (Seattle Times). The electors sued, claiming that the fine violated various provisions of the federal constitution (Oyez). The state supreme court upheld the fine, and this Supreme Court appeal followed (Casetext, SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 July 2020.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 5.00% | |
No | 95.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 125 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 343 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |