Foxes Ask:

In Chiafalo v. Washington, will the Supreme Court rule that the state of Washington's fining of presidential electors for failing to vote for the nominee of their party is unconstitutional?

Started Jan 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 06, 2020 02:00PM UTC

Washington state law requires Electoral College voters to cast their ballots for the presidential candidates from their party who won the popular vote in the state, but in 2016 four electors cast their votes for others and were fined (Seattle Times). The electors sued, claiming that the fine violated various provisions of the federal constitution (Oyez). The state supreme court upheld the fine, and this Supreme Court appeal followed (Casetext, SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 July 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 125
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 343
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.281
2.
-0.261
3.
-0.259
4.
-0.254
5.
-0.252

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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