The Economist asks:

Between 7 February 2020 and 30 June 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in eight or more fatalities for Turkish armed forces?

Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

In the midst of ongoing turmoil in Libya, Turkey has begun deploying armed forces to the country (Economist, BBC). Tensions are high as various international actors support different Libyan factions (Al Jazeera, Middle East Monitor, Foreign Policy in Focus). Both the lethal confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 284
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 811
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.087
3.
-0.087
4.
-0.087
5.
-0.086

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username