Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Between 7 February 2020 and 30 June 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in eight or more fatalities for Turkish armed forces?

In the midst of ongoing turmoil in Libya, Turkey has begun deploying armed forces to the country (Economist, BBC). Tensions are high as various international actors support different Libyan factions (Al Jazeera, Middle East Monitor, Foreign Policy in Focus). Both the lethal confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Yes 30%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In