San Francisco Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the team winning the 2020 National Basketball Association championship be a first-time champion?

Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 27, 2020 03:00AM UTC

As of the start of the 2019-2020, eleven NBA franchises have never won a championship: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and the Utah Jazz (NBA). The NBA finals are scheduled to begin on 4 June 2020 (NBA).

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NOTE 6 April 2020: If the 2020 NBA season is canceled, the question will be voided.

NOTE 23 July 2020: The question has been extended through 15 October 2020.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 September 2020. [There was an error in scoring that we are working to address]

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 277
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 830
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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