Bernard-Zimmermann asks:

Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 January 2021?

Started Feb 14, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

The Australian government's response to the bushfires in the country has eroded the standing of the prime minister (abc.net.eu, Guardian).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 256
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 606
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.03
2.
-0.03
3.
-0.029
5.
-0.029

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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