Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for U.S. president?

Started Feb 21, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 18, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled for 13-16 July 2020 (Ballotpedia, 270 To Win).

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NOTE 24 April 2020: Due to the postponement of the Democratic National Convention, the closing date has been revised.


The question closed "Joe Biden" with a closing date of 18 August 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Joe Biden 100%
Michael Bloomberg 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%
Amy Klobuchar 0%
Bernie Sanders 0%
Elizabeth Warren 0%
Someone Else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1219
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 2810
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.075399
2.
-0.071798
3.
-0.069169
4.
-0.067549
5.
-0.060084

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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