Will the Democratic Party nominate their presidential candidate on the first ballot of the presidential roll call at the 2020 Democratic National Convention?

Started Feb 21, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 18, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Talk of a “brokered” Democratic convention, where multiple ballots at the convention are necessary to select the presidential nominee, has been rising after rule changes and close results in Iowa and New Hampshire (CNN, Five Thirty Eight). The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held 13-16 July 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Demconvention.comDemocrats.org). 

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 August 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 475
Average for questions older than 6 months: 209
Number of Forecasts 1031
Average for questions older than 6 months: 592
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059
2.
-0.057
3.
-0.056
4.
-0.054

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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