Who will win the 2020 Bolivian presidential election?

Started Feb 21, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 14, 2020 06:59AM UTC

After the controversial re-election and subsequent resignation of leftist president Evo Morales in late 2019, a special general election has been scheduled for 3 May 2020 with a runoff scheduled for 14 June 2020 if needed (Americas Quarterly, AS/COA, France24).

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NOTE 26 March 2020: If the Bolivian election takes place before the scheduled closing date of the question, then the question's closing date will be extended out to cover the new runoff date (if needed). Otherwise, the question will resolve as written with the current closing date.


The question closed "Someone else or another outcome" with a closing date of 14 June 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeanine Áñez 0%
Luis Arce 0%
Luis Camacho 0%
Carlos Mesa 0%
Someone else or another outcome 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 79
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 280
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.832
2.
-0.817
3.
-0.797
4.
-0.751

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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