Foxes Ask:

Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and/or relocated?

Started Feb 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 24, 2020 11:00PM UTC

The 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan, are scheduled for 24 July - 9 August 2020, with the Paralympic Games to follow 25 August - 6 September 2020 (Olympic.org, Paralympic.org). There is speculation the outbreak of COVID-19 could lead to postponing, canceling, or relocating the games (Time, BBC, Guardian, Newsweek).

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The question closed "Yes, both" with a closing date of 24 March 2020 (BBC).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, the Olympic Games only 0%
Yes, the Paralympic Games only 0%
Yes, both 100%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 503
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1139
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.432
2.
-0.417
3.
-0.416
5.
-0.402

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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