When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?

Started Feb 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC, Market Watch). The outcome will be determined using Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury by comparing the value in the "2 Yr" column with the value in the "10 Yr" column for each day (Treasury.gov).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "Not before 1 August 2020" with a closing date of 1 August 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 March 2020 0%
Between 15 March 2020 and 30 April 2020 0%
Between 1 May 2020 and 15 June 2020 0%
Between 16 June 2020 and 31 July 2020 0%
Not before 1 August 2020 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 299
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.032048
2.
-0.027922
3.
-0.025555
5.
-0.025506

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username