The Economist asks:

How many paying subscribers will "Disney+" have according to Disney in the second quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020?

Started Mar 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 05, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Disney+, the media giant's streaming service, launched in November 2019 (EconomistCNET). Disney reported 26.5 million subscribers for the first quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020 (October-December 2019) and has further plans to launch in Europe in late March 2020 (Walt Disney Company, CNBC). Disney's earnings for the second quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020 (January-March 2020) are scheduled to be released on 12 May 2020 (Business Insider).

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The question closed "Less than 35.0 million" with a closing date of 5 May 2020 (Walt Disney Company).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 35.0 million 0%
Between 35.0 million and 45.0 million, inclusive 9%
More than 45.0 million but less than 55.0 million 37%
55.0 million or more 54%
Disney will not report paying subscriber figures for Disney+ 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 474
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.232
2.
-1.133
3.
-1.117
4.
-0.994
5.
-0.962

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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