Started Mar 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC

Smoothdriving asks:

In its January 2021 World Economic Outlook report, by how much will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimate the global economy grew in 2020?

In its January 2020 report, the IMF projected global growth to rise 3.3 percent in 2020 (IMF). The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has raised questions regarding global economic growth in 2020 and beyond (Reuters, ABC News, NY Times). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and the outcome will be determined using the IMF's estimate for 2020 in its World Economic Outlook report scheduled to be published in January 2021 (IMF).

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Name Probability
Less than 1.5% 99%
Between 1.5% and 2.0%, inclusive 1%
Between 2.1% and 2.6%, inclusive 0%
Between 2.7% and 3.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 3.0% 0%

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