Started Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 27, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 3.00%?

Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end at Mortgage Bankers Association. For the week ending 6 March 2020, the rate was 3.47% (Mortgage Bankers Association).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 June 2020.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

310

Forecast
Count

752

Crowd Brier Score

0.5536


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.65
2.
-0.647
3.
-0.638
4.
-0.638
5.
-0.635

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