Started Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 27, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 3.00%?

Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end at Mortgage Bankers Association. For the week ending 6 March 2020, the rate was 3.47% (Mortgage Bankers Association).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 June 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 310
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 752
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.65
2.
-0.647
3.
-0.638
4.
-0.638
5.
-0.635

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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